'Jurassic World 2' Roars into Domestic Theaters as 'Incredibles 2' Looks to Hold Strong

[uSp]

While it may not appear out of the ordinary, this weekend's release of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and its anticipated $100+ million opening will mark only the second time ever that two different films have opened with over $100 million back-to-back at the box office. The first and last time this happened was in 2007 when Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End opened with $114.7 million following Shrek the Third's $121.6 million opening the weekend prior. In fact, the rarity of what will take place this weekend doesn't end there as only eight times following a $100+ million performance at the weekend box office has a film not repeated at #1 the following weekend. Even more rare, two films have never brought in more than $100 million over the same weekend Should Incredibles 2 drop 45.26% or less this weekend we'll have yet another piece of history to discuss come Sunday morning.

 

After debuting internationally just over two weeks ago, Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment's Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opens this weekend in 4,475 North American theaters. The studio is anticipating a $130 million debut. Remembering back to summer 2015, Jurassic World hit theaters with forecasts anticipating a $125 million opening before roaring to a then-record $208.8 million debut. Analysts suggested everything from Chris Pratt's rising star power to premium formats and the picture's four-quadrant appeal brought in the masses in a way that couldn't be predicted. Now the sequel arrives three years later and you can't help but wonder if expectations are once again too low.

 

Of course, as already mentioned in our lede, Fallen Kingdom's release on the heels of the monster, $182.6 million debut for Incredibles 2 last weekend doesn't bode well for a similarly super-charged opening this weekend. Even when you consider online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports Fallen Kingdom is leading the company's weekend ticket sales, we also learn Incredibles 2 isn't too far behind, likely taking a big bite out of Fallen Kingdom's family audience.

 

Looking at IMDb page view data ahead of release, Fallen Kingdom was dramatically outperforming the first film beginning about a month and a half prior to release, but in recent weeks has slowed, now pacing behind the first film as well as Avengers: Age of Ultron and now trending closer to films such as The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Wonder Woman.

 

While the film has received lukewarm reviews (51 on MetaCritic and 54% on RottenTomatoes) the first film didn't receive the best reviews either and Fallen Kingdom has already proved a hit overseas, surging to $450 million internationally. It has set opening weekend records in multiple markets along with a $113.6 million rollout in China this past weekend, topping the $95 million the first film brought in over its first five days.

 

Distilling this information into expectations for this weekend, however, is difficult, mostly having to do with the film's proximity to Incredibles 2. Universal's $130 million expectation is entirely reasonable, though some might say a bit lofty as tracking has dipped just a bit below that number recently. Our analysis, before taking Incredibles 2 into account, would suggest an opening anywhere from $143-177 million. The question is, just how much of a bite out of Fallen Kingdom's opening does Incredibles take?

 

With an eye toward the eight instances where a film opened over $100 million and didn't repeat at #1 over their second weekend, one select example would be Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened with $84.4 million, -33% below the $125.5 million opening for Deadpool 2. Additionally, Monsters University's $82.4 million opening was -29% below the $116.6 million opening for Man of Steel. Using these comparisons in relation to last weekend's opening for Incredibles 2 provides an opening weekend range of $122-129 million for Fallen Kingdom. All factors considered, our expectations find us leaning toward a performance anywhere from $125-145 million for the weekend.

 

Internationally, as already mentioned, Fallen Kingdom has grossed $450 million thus far and this weekend will add another 17 markets including four key markets in Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Japan.

 

In second position, we're anticipating Incredibles 2 will deliver $90+ million, dipping around 50% or so. By comparison, Finding Dory dropped just 46% in its second weekend, but given the sheer size of the Incredibles 2 opening as well as competition from Fallen Kingdom it would seem a sophomore session similar to Dory's, which only had Independence Day: Resurgence as its biggest competition, doesn't seem likely at this point. Should our weekend estimate hold, the film will top $360 million domestically by Sunday, making it one of the top ten animated films of all-time after just ten days in release.

 

Internationally, Incredibles 2 has already brought in over $75 million and will expand further this weekend with openings in China, Iceland, Croatia, Thailand and India. Overall the film has already grossed nearly $330 million worldwide.

 

WB's Ocean's 8 just might crack $100 million by end of day Sunday if it can pull off a drop less than 45%, but we're expecting it to come up just a bit shy, finishing around $9.3 million for a domestic cume just over $98 million.

 

Warner Bros. should also land in fourth position with the R-rated comedy Tag dropping around 50% or so in its second weekend, finishing around $7.5 million.

 

And rounding out the top five is Disney and Lucasfilms's Solo: A Star Wars Story, which will top $200 million at the domestic box office this weekend.

 

Just outside the top five, look for Deadpool 2 to top $300 million domestically this weekend while Hereditary is looking to top $35 million on a reported $10 million budget.

 

In limited release, IFC will release The Catcher was a Spy into 48 locations; Sony Classics will debut Boundaries in five theaters; Magnolia will release Damsel; Oscilloscope is opening The King; Vertical is opening Incident in a Ghostland; and Cohen Media is releasing the documentary Spiral.

 

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

 

• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (4,475 theaters) - $132.0 M
• Incredibles 2 (4,410 theaters) - $91.3 M
• Ocean's 8 (3,656 theaters) - $9.3 M
• Tag (3,382 theaters) - $7.5 M
• Solo: A Star Wars Story (2,338 theaters) - $5.3 M
• Deadpool 2 (2,420 theaters) - $5.2 M
• Hereditary (2,002 theaters) - $3.6 M
• Superfly (2,220 theaters) - $3.4 M
• Avengers: Infinity War (1,456 theaters) - $3.3 M
• Won't You Be My Neighbor? (348 theaters) - $1.7 M

 

boxofficemojo.com

[uSp]